The Duke Study, Bitcoin Mining, & the Future of Grid Stability

The following article summarizes key findings from the Rethinking Load Growth study published by the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability at Duke University. This article includes expert commentary from Chris Ruppel, MARA’s Director of Distributed Energy Resources and Energy Origination, on how Bitcoin mining can support grid stability while counteracting the strain from AI data centers.

Chris Ruppel brings decades of experience in energy markets, infrastructure finance, and grid resilience. His insights highlight how Bitcoin mining can be a critical tool for the grid, helping them maximize grid efficiency.

TLDR

• Electricity demand is surging due to AI data centers, industrial expansion, and electrification, placing unprecedented strain on the grid.

• The Duke study finds that flexible loads can be curtailed when necessary to help absorb new power demand without infrastructure expansion, allowing at least 76 GW of new load (equal to 10% of the nation’s peak demand) to be integrated with just 0.25% annual curtailment.

• Bitcoin mining fits this model well, providing utilities with a scalable, controllable load that can improve grid efficiency and stability.

Bitcoin Mining & the Growing Strain on Power Grids

Electricity demand in the US is rising at an unprecedented rate. AI data centers, industrial manufacturing, and widespread electrification are pushing the grid to its limits, forcing utilities to reconsider how they manage and distribute power. The challenge is not just about meeting higher energy demand but also managing seasonal time of use, daily load curves, and a changing electricity mix with higher levels of variable energy resources.

Traditional and AI-driven data centers often require continuous, uninterrupted power, making them inflexible loads that contribute to peak demand spikes. This forces utilities to build costly new infrastructure that takes years to deploy. Flexible loads, such as Bitcoin mining, offer a path forward, consuming excess power during periods of oversupply, and ramping down during periods of peak demand. Bitcoin mining’s flexible energy demand monetizes underutilized assets, which can provide additional revenue for grid improvements at no expense to ratepayers.

Surging Electricity Demand & Grid Constraints

According to the Duke study, electricity demand is now increasing at a rate not seen since the 1980s, with forecasted growth exceeding any period in the last four decades. Overall, total winter peak load is expected to rise by 21.5% over the next decade. AI data centers are projected to drive a significant share of electricity demand growth, with AI workloads expected to account for 50% to 70% of total data center power consumption by 2030, increasing peak load requirements. Utilities are struggling to keep pace, facing permitting obstacles, land constraints, labor shortages, and supply chain delays that slow the development of new power plants and transmission lines.

This study highlights that today’s regulatory environment and economic constraints make large-scale grid expansion costly and time-consuming. The current environment makes it critical to find ways to optimize existing capacity before committing to expensive new projects.

How AI Data Centers & Bitcoin Mining Impact the Grid

The Duke study introduces the concept of curtailment-enabled headroom, which measures how much additional power demand can be accommodated by existing capacity given that the loads can be reduced or turned off as needed. Their research finds that at least 76 gigawatts of new load, the equivalent to 10% of the nation’s current peak demand, could be integrated if these loads are curtailed for just 0.25% of their maximum uptime.

AI data centers, while necessary for advancing computing, are often inflexible. They require near-constant power availability, contributing to higher levels of peak demand. Additionally, AI workloads can be highly volatile, with rapid fluctuations in power demand that place additional stress on grid infrastructure and destabilize system operations.

In contrast, Bitcoin mining can scale its power usage almost instantaneously based on grid conditions. These adjustments in consumption can reduce the need to turn power plants on and off, lowering electricity costs and stabilizing the grid. This flexibility also means Bitcoin mining can integrate into the grid without adding long-term infrastructure strain. When considered alongside the Duke study’s findings, Bitcoin mining emerges as a valuable tool for utilities to optimize their current assets, acting as a stabilizing force that strengthens grid resilience and economics.

"Bitcoin is a variable load, meaning that you can dispatch it, so you don’t add any bricks to the bottom of that pyramid. You don’t make the column go higher. In fact—and this is the big in fact—you are benefiting the grid, and this is a big change. You’re benefiting the grid because ultimately what you want to be able to do is to provide the maximum amount of monetization from a given portfolio of grid assets without having to spend more for CapEx for additional infrastructure.” – Chris Ruppel

Using Flexible Loads to Solve Transmission Bottlenecks

The Duke study identifies transmission constraints as a major obstacle to integrating new electricity demand. Some utilities report seven to ten-year delays before new large loads can access the grid due to permitting challenges, supply chain issues, and congestion in transmission corridors. These transmission constraints create a supply-demand imbalance, challenging generation economics by restricting electricity delivery to high-demand areas.

Flexible loads like Bitcoin mining help alleviate these bottlenecks for energy producers by consuming power onsite at the point of generation without additional transmission infrastructure. This ability for mining operations to collocate at sites with excess energy allows utilities to make better use of stranded capacity. Mining facilities are also fully dispatchable and relocatable, making them a valuable stopgap measure while utilities expand the grid.

“We can also come in as a monetizing load as they are doing bridge-to-grid. So what AI data centers are finding—and this is not just true of AI data centers, it is true of any factory that wants to have a higher load (something of 50 megawatts or greater)—is they cannot get the power from the grid now.” – Chris Ruppel

Why MARA is Leading the Transition to Smarter Grid Management

As one of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies, MARA is uniquely positioned to work with utilities and policymakers to integrate flexible computing loads into energy markets. The company’s approach aligns with the Duke study on curtailment-enabled headroom, making it a valuable partner for power providers navigating rapid demand growth.

By focusing on energy-first mining strategies, MARA can help utilities manage grid stress, optimize infrastructure costs, and improve overall grid resilience, all while monetizing excess power that would otherwise go to waste.

“The future of the grid belongs to those who can be flexible. Bitcoin miners like MARA are ready to lead the way.” – Chris Ruppel